Avoiding the Gambler’s Fallacy in Sports Betting

The following post offers tips for avoiding the gambler’s fallacy in sports betting.

Ever find yourself betting on a team because of the ‘due factor’? For instance, the New England Patriots have lost their last four home games – they are due for a win.

Read: Pitfalls of Buying Sports Betting Picks

Related: How to Use Flat Betting For Wagering Success

This is a very common (and costly) cognitive bias amongst bettors. By taking time to understand the gambler’s fallacy, you’re better equipped to protect your bankroll.

Here’s what you need to know.

Overview

In a nutshell, the gambler’s fallacy suggests that when something happens at a high rate (in a short period of time), it’s less likely to happen again in the future.

Consider the following hypothetical example.

Example

Imagine a three-game series between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians. The White Sox are in last place and the Guardians are in first place. The White Sox win the first two of a three-game series. Surely, the Guardians are due to avoid a sweep in game three (since they’re a first place team with a better record). Right!? Wrong, White Sox win!

Each game is an independent event. The outcome of one game does not influence the probabilities of the next. In the example, the Guardians’ chance of winning game three is not correlated to the previous outcomes.

Are the Guardians a better team overall? Sure. In a large sample size, they may win 70 games out of 100 vs. the White Sox. However, in a small sample size (like a three-game series) where events are independent of the others, anything is possible.

Learning Lessons

You need to be self aware enough to recognize when your potential bet is based in logic or emotion. If your inner thoughts are saying ‘they’re due’ or ‘it’s their year’, you’re betting on emotions (which is costly).

Be aware of your emotional reactions to recent outcomes and don’t allow those to override your logic and reasoning.

In Conclusion

The key takeaway here is to avoid making wagers based on the ‘due factor’. It’s flawed logic! Remember to base your decisions on informed analysis rather than emotional impulses.