Lessons from Mike Lee’s Betting the Bases

The following post explores learning lessons from Mike Lee’s ‘Betting the Bases’.

Published in 1981, Mike Lee’s ‘Betting the Bases’ is a cult classic that explores the fundamentals of betting on baseball. Despite its age, this book is still regarded as a must-read.

Read: How to Understand Action vs Listed Pitchers in Baseball

Related: List of MLB Podcasts by Team

The insights in this short book have been known to resonate with squares and sharps alike, making it a timeless resource in the world of baseball betting.

Here’s a rundown of the key takeaways.

Beware Travel

One of the first lessons we learn is the impact of travel during the baseball season. Over the course of 162 games, travel is a major factor to consider for bettors.

Often a team will play badly upon hitting the road after a lengthy homestand, but this depends on the team. Also, after a long road trip, it will take some teams awhile to settle down upon arriving home.

Home Dogs

Another lesson we learn early in the book is the value of home underdogs. The author gives multiple reasons for liking home dogs (including home field advantage and slow adjusting bookmakers).

In case you haven’t gotten the word, the home dog is one of the best bets in sports, whether it be baseball, football, or basketball. There is a built-in hidden ingredient that not even the oddsmaker can figure out. Teams installed as the underdog when playing in front of their home fans simply try harder because they have something to prove…perhaps the road favorite is overconfident, or the home fans are pumping up the adrenaline in the players and scaring the hell out of the visitors. Who knows for sure? Most probably, all of these factors are what make the home dog such an attractive proposition…April and May are the best months for home dogs. Often, it takes the oddsmaker a month or so to catch on to the ‘sleeper teams’ which pop up each year.

Game of Streaks

Most every MLB team goes on multiple streaks (winning and losing) each season. These swings in momentum offer opportunities for bettors to capitalize.

The good clubs go on longer winning streaks, the marginal teams possess the longer losing streaks…the important thing to remember is that the players realize they are on a streak when the number of consecutive wins reaches three…by the term ‘good club’ I’m referring to a winning team, one that wins approximately 55-59% of its total games (anything above 60% is very good). Psychologically, they are more in tune to winning the fourth simply because they have the confidence they can do it.

Sweep Game Fallacy

The sweep game fallacy deceives bettors into favoring a dominant home team facing a potential sweep, under the mistaken belief that it could never happen.

It is far more difficult to anticipate a streak (reversal of form) than go along with one. In other words, to predict the home team to win its final game simply because it needs to do so is not good enough. We are neglecting that important handicapping factor – current form.

Let’s review the facts on a sweep game:

(a) Betting on the club in danger of losing a three game series at home does not show a profit in the long run. In fact, a substantial loss.

(b) Pennant contenders do not show a profit in this situation either. Do not bet a good team simply because they have lost the first two games of their home series.

(c) In a four game series, however, there is a small profit in wagering on the club in danger of being swept – these plays are few and far between.

(d) In a three game series, wager against the club in danger of being swept if they are the favorite. In other words, you are betting they will lose all their home games by taking the road underdog.

Betting Strategies

Aside from the aforementioned betting strategies, the author offers several condition-based situations to look for during the baseball season. Let’s explore those.

Good Home Team on Winning Streak

After a good club wins three consecutive games, play them up to three straight times if there conditions are in effect:

(a) They are at home

(b) Price line is below 1.70

If after the third straight win, the club goes on the road, then you don’t have so much as a single play. Even though the club may have shown some ability to win on the road, their percentage is not high enough to keep the streak alive in the long run.

Any Home Team on Winning Streak

Here, we are looking for any team, not just the dandies, that has won three games in succession. Key on this club for one game only as it shoots for a fourth win. Whether we win the game of not, we back off and wait for the play to arise again. The rules are simple, the results extremely powerful.

(a) Team must be at home

(b) Team must have three consecutive wins

(c) Team must be the underdog

(d) Play the team only once, regardless of the outcome

Road Team Favorite on Losing Streak

Take a look at the mirror-image of the three-win home dog theory. Suppose we catch a club which has three losses. Could there be an advantage in going against such a team with the hopes that it will lose the fourth?…In this way, we will be taking advantage of a club on a losing streak by once more concentrating on the home dog…here are the rules.

(a) Team must have three consecutive losses

(b) Team must be on the road

(c) Team must be favored (the road favorites)

(d) Go against this team by taking the home dog

In Conclusion

In conclusion, ‘Betting the Bases’ offers a variety of insights for baseball bettors, ranging from the impact of travel and the allure of home underdogs to the psychology of winning and losing streaks.

Get a copy for about $10 on Amazon.