Hot Takes: Venezuela to Win the World Baseball Classic
Published on: February 4, 2026
Updated on: February 4, 2026
Category: Hot Takes
‘Hot Takes’ is a new series on the Square Bettor blog that goes out on a limb to make bold predictions. ‘Hot Takes’ looks at futures bets and live dogs with long odds and big-time payouts.
Read: Tips for Live Betting on Baseball
Related: Best Metrics for Baseball Handicapping
Most bettors won’t touch these numbers—and that’s exactly the point. ‘Hot Takes’ embraces the uncomfortable side of the board. These are bold picks, not guaranteed locks! Take them with a grain of salt.
Here’s what you need to know.
The Hot Take
Venezuela to win the World Baseball Classic.
The Scenario
With the World Baseball Classic approaching (March 5 to March 17, 2026), Venezuela is the 4th or 5th strongest favorite in the tournament. At most sportsbooks, Venezuela is priced around +1500 to win the WBC. USA, Japan, and the Dominican Republic are the heavy favorites, all with odds at +400 or less.
Who do you like to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? pic.twitter.com/wM1hm4uxDs
— Square Bettor (@squarebettorllc) February 4, 2026
Venezuela’s Roster
If you haven’t checked out Venezuela’s roster yet, it’s loaded with recognizable names. Here’s the full rundown on Venezuela’s projected lineup and pitching staff for the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
Projected Batting Order:
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Maikel Garcia (3B) — Leadoff sparkplug with elite speed and on-base skills.
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Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) — Former MVP beast; hits for average, power, and steals bases.
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José Altuve (2B) — Clutch .300 hitter, always delivers in big moments.
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Eugenio Suárez (DH) — Veteran slugger to clean up and drive in runs.
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Salvador Pérez (1B/C) — Captain and masher; crushes in international play.
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William Contreras (C) — Strong bat and platoon flexibility behind the plate.
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Jackson Chourio (CF) — Rising star with speed, pop, and upside.
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Wilyer Abreu (LF) — Solid all-around contributor with defense and contact.
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Ezequiel Tovar (SS) — Young defensive stud who can hit (Gleyber Torres, Andrés Giménez, or others could swap in for depth).
Likely Starting Rotation:
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Ranger Suárez (LHP) — Often the ace projection; reliable command and playoff pedigree.
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Pablo López (RHP) — High-strikeout veteran with swing-and-miss stuff.
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Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP) — Confirmed vet with control and experience.
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Germán Márquez (RHP) — Power arm when healthy.
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Keider Montero (RHP) or Jesús Luzardo (LHP) — Solid depth for the fifth spot or matchups.
Likely Bullpen:
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Robert Suárez (RHP) — Nasty closer/setup guy with filthy stuff.
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Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — Multi-inning or setup potential.
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Ángel Zerpa (LHP) — Lefty specialist for tough matchups.
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Daniel Palencia (RHP) — Emerging middle reliever.
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Bryan Mata (RHP) — Additional power arm for leverage.
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Others like José Alvarado (if returning) or Andrés Muñoz types could push in for late-inning heat.
How the WBC Works
If you’re unfamiliar with how the World Baseball Classic (WBC) works, it’s important to take a minute to understand the basics to assess Venezuela’s chances of winning the tournament.
It’s similar to the World Cup in soccer. There are four pools (like groups), each containing five teams. Every team plays the other four in their pool once in a round-robin format (4 games per team).
The top two teams from each pool (based on win-loss record and tiebreakers) advance to the single-elimination eight-team tournament to compete for the World Baseball Classic title.
Venezuela vs. Pool D
If Venezuela is going to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic, they must finish in the top two of Pool D.
Venezuela plays in Pool D along with Dominican Republic, Netherlands, Israel, and Nicaragua. Aside from the Dominicans who are a heavy favorite, the rest of Pool D is made up of long shots.
Pictured below is a screenshot of Pool D in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
Venezuela is expected to finish in the top 2 of Pool D. Which means, barring a major upset, they will be one of the final eight teams to reach the single-elimination tournament.
Venezuela’s Path to Victory
If everything goes as expected, Venezuela will have the toughest path to the championship game of any team.
They will probably face defending champion Japan in the first round. If they can defeat Japan, they will probably face DR in the semifinals. If they can beat DR, they will probably face USA in the finals.
Those are the top three teams in the WBC. Venezuela must beat all three consecutively to pull this off.
It’s a daunting proposition, but it also explains why their odds are priced where they are.
Venezuela is an intriguing option at +1600.
Obviously, USA, DR, and Japan are all loaded.
But, don’t sleep on Venezuela.https://t.co/51tMNaleX8 https://t.co/J71I4UK381
— A Square Bettor (@asquarebettor) February 4, 2026
