Tips for Betting on MLB Rookie of the Year

Rookie of the Year futures are among the most popular preseason bets in baseball. Every spring, bettors scramble to pick the “next big thing,” often chasing strikeouts, home runs, or highlight-reel plays.

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Related: MLB NL Rookie of the Year Award Odds

Identifying potential winners for Rookie of the Year is about opportunity, playing time, and consistent production over an entire season. So, which positions have the best track record of winning the award?

Here’s what you need to know.

Overview

Not all positions are equal when it comes to winning Rookie of the Year.

Starting pitchers often catch the eye with strikeouts and dominant outings, while relievers might stand out with high save totals. However, history shows that the award usually favors position players.

By examining the data, we can see which positions consistently produce winners and which ones are longshots, giving bettors a clearer sense of where to focus their preseason bets.

Which position in MLB has received the most Rookie of the Year Awards (1947 to Present)? https://t.co/b9aPDYSM8m

— Square Bettor (@squarebettorllc) January 7, 2026

Rookie of the Year Winners Historically

The following table displays data (by position) for the winners of the Rookie of the Year Award (1947 to 2025), across both the American League and National League.

As you can see, outfielders dominate historically, while starting pitchers account for a significant portion, making them the second-most frequent winners.

Based on the data, we can conclude that the award favors players who can accumulate stats over an entire season, which gives everyday position players a built-in advantage over pitchers.

Outfielders

It is no coincidence that outfielders have claimed the most hardware since 1947.

From a betting perspective, the outfield offers the highest statistical floor because these players rarely face the same physical restrictions as catchers or the scheduled layoffs of pitchers. An everyday outfielder can accumulate over 600 plate appearances, providing a massive window to rack up the “counting stats” that voters find impossible to ignore, such as home runs, runs scored, and stolen bases.

Modern winners like Mike Trout and Julio Rodríguez highlight the typical path to victory: consistent, multi-category production from a premium spot in the batting order. Since they impact the game with both their bats and their legs, outfielders have multiple ways to stay in the race even if one part of their game slumps.

Starting Pitchers

Starting pitchers hold the second-highest win total, but their path to the award is fundamentally different from that of a position player.

While an outfielder wins through steady accumulation, a pitcher usually wins through sheer dominance. In the current era, voters are looking for rookies who change the dynamic of a game the moment they step on the mound, prioritizing high strikeout rates and the ability to suppress runs.

While a pitcher has fewer opportunities to fix their season (making every start high-stakes) a truly elite arm can leapfrog the field in a few months. We saw this recently with Paul Skenes, who proved that a pitcher doesn’t necessarily need a full six months of service time if their per-inning impact is historic.

Shortstops

Shortstops round out the top three most successful positions, largely because the position is the most demanding spot on the infield.

Voters have a long history of rewarding shortstops because they provide positional value. If a rookie can handle the defensive rigors of the 6-hole while providing league-average offense, their overall value to the team often exceeds that of a heavy-hitting first baseman.

A rookie shortstop with a great glove is likely to stay in the lineup every day, even during a hitting slump, because the team relies on his defense. This guaranteed playing time eventually allows the offensive numbers to catch up, as seen with winners like Derek Jeter or Gunnar Henderson.

Conclusion

In conclusion, when betting on Rookie of the Year, raw talent alone isn’t enough — opportunity, playing time, and sustained production across the season matter most.

Outfielders have historically won the award most. Starting pitchers are the next strongest cohort.

If you’re considering a Rookie of the Year wager, focus on rookies who are positioned to play every day (or pitch regularly), contribute across key stats, and are visible to voters throughout the full season.