Lessons from ‘Good Teams Win Great Teams Cover’ by Pat Hagerty
Published on: March 20, 2025
Updated on: April 11, 2025
Category: Advice & Tips
The following post explores Lessons from ‘Good Teams Win Great Teams Cover’ by Pat Hagerty.
Published in 2016, ‘Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover’ is a 150-page book with 25 chapters that explores life lessons and strategies for success in sports betting.
Read: Lessons from ‘Gambler: Secrets From a Life at Risk’ by Billy Walters
Related: Lessons from ‘Betting the Bases’ by Mike Lee
In this book, Pat Hagerty shares personal anecdotes from his life experiences and draws parallels to the lessons he learned while betting on NCAAF and NFL.
Here’s what you need to know.
About the Author
Pat Hagerty isn’t widely known in sports betting circles. He is a self-described degenerate gambler with a passion for betting on NCAAF and NFL.
On his website, he describes himself as ‘a pretty normal guy from Raleigh, North Carolina’. He’s also an Air Force veteran and a husband and father of three.
His book has a 4.5/5 rating on 342 reviews on Amazon.
Chapters
Here is a look at the different chapters in the book.
The Bounceback Spot
In chapter 14, Hagerty explains why the bounce back spot is one of his favorite betting opportunities to capitalize on a good team that is coming off a bad loss.
I love the bounce back spot almost as much as the letdown spot.
In a letdown spot, you don’t expect a team to play as well as they did the previous week. They are probably celebrating their victory a little too much, and are not as prepared for the following game. As such, there is value in fading a team that is prime for a let down.
In a bounce back spot, the opposite is true. A team that gets embarrassed should show their true colors in their next game. They may show some pride and put forth their best effort in their next contest. However, it is just as likely they will roll over and play dead like my Philadelphia Phillies.
When trying to identify bounce back opportunities, you need to be aware of when the bounce back may not work.
What goes up must come down, but what goes down must come up as well. Look for a team that suffered a horrible defeat to bounce back the next game. If you can identify a team that will play hard after defeat, you can make a lot of money.
Primetime Theory
In Chapter 16, Hagerty explores his ‘Primetime Theory’ and shares his thoughts on nationally televised spotlight games and the betting opportunities they present.
My Primetime Theory states that teams play to their truest ability when they know the whole world is watching. Both teams will give maximum effort. As such, the better team will win straight up nearly every week.
An interesting betting angle occurs when a team who isn’t used to the college football spotlight shows up, and has a big win. Almost without fail that team will crap the bed the following week. This is pretty predictable as those teams aren’t really used to those types of big wins with everyone watching.
For prime time games, expect teams to play to their truest ability. Both teams will want to perform at their best when everyone is watching. You can expect maximum effort. Knowing you will get the best version of both teams in these situations gives you a much better chance at handicapping the game correctly.
Bowl Betting
In chapter 20, Hagerty explores the key factors to consider and what to look for when betting on bowl games in college football.
Motivation
Motivation is the name of the game during bowl season. Who wants to be there, and who just wants their season to be over? Who is excited about the opportunity, and who is disappointed with where they ended up?
Coaching
Stay away from teams that just lost their head coach.
When that happens, an assistant takes over the head coaching responsibilities for the bowl game. Think about what is happening to that staff though…simply put, when the head coach leaves, the entire program will be in turmoil.
Bet the SEC
Since 1990 (to 2016) they are 55% against the spread in bowl games. You can bet them confidently.
Putting It All Together
In the final chapter, Hagerty recaps his philosophy on sports betting and what he attempted to communicate in the book. Here are some of the key takeaways.
I tend to focus on several teams throughout a football season, and tend to make a lot of plays either for them or against them.
I also religiously track what I am doing. I keep a notebook that has the lines with my notes on them from every week in the season…If you aren’t tracking your plays, you have no idea where the holes are in your game.
I gave you over twenty types of situational plays I look for.
The most important thing you can take away from this book is the systematic approach I have to betting. This book is a compilation of strategies that have made me a successful football bettor.
